Shemitah Cycle Dates

The Shemitah is the seventh, "sabbatical" year of the Hebrew calendar, when debts were released and fields left to rest. Some market commentators argue that financial stress clusters around its end on Elul 29. This page lists the coming Shemitah years for reference and checks the idea against what the S&P 500 and Bitcoin actually did in past ones.

Next Shemitah year
5789: Sep 20, 2028 – Sep 9, 2029

Begins at sundown in 695 days. Ends at sundown on Elul 29 (Sep 9, 2029). The stretch theorists watch runs from fall 2028 into early 2030.

Upcoming Shemitah years

  • 5789
    Sep 20, 2028 – Sep 9, 2029
    Theorists watch fall 2028 through late 2029 / early 2030
  • 5796
    Oct 3, 2035 – Sep 21, 2036
    Theorists watch fall 2035 through late 2036 / early 2037
  • 5803
    Sep 14, 2042 – Oct 4, 2043
    Theorists watch fall 2042 through late 2043 / early 2044
  • 5810
    Sep 26, 2049 – Sep 16, 2050
    Theorists watch fall 2049 through late 2050 / early 2051

Each year begins at sundown on the first date shown and ends at sundown on Elul 29, the last date shown.

What markets did in past Shemitah years

  • 5782Sep 7, 2021 – Sep 25, 2022
    S&P 500
    −18.6%
    Worst fall
    −23.6%
    Bitcoin
    −64.3%

    2022 inflation bear market, fastest Fed hikes in decades; Terra/Luna collapse in crypto.

  • 5775Sep 25, 2014 – Sep 13, 2015
    S&P 500
    −1.9%
    Worst fall
    −12.4%
    Bitcoin
    −45.5%

    August 2015 flash crash and the China devaluation; Bitcoin was in its 2014–15 bear market.

  • 5768Sep 13, 2007 – Sep 29, 2008
    S&P 500
    −24.8%
    Worst fall
    −29.3%
    Bitcoin
    —

    Global financial crisis. Ended on Sep 29, 2008, the day the Dow fell 777 points.

  • 5761Sep 30, 2000 – Sep 17, 2001
    S&P 500
    −27.7%
    Worst fall
    −27.7%
    Bitcoin
    —

    Dot-com bust. Ended on Sep 17, 2001, the first trading day after 9/11.

  • 5754Sep 16, 1993 – Sep 5, 1994
    S&P 500
    +2.0%
    Worst fall
    −8.9%
    Bitcoin
    —

    The 1994 bond-market rout; stocks were roughly flat.

  • 5747Oct 4, 1986 – Sep 23, 1987
    S&P 500
    +37.4%
    Worst fall
    −7.9%
    Bitcoin
    —

    A strong year. Black Monday (Oct 19, 1987) hit about four weeks after it ended.

  • 5740Sep 22, 1979 – Sep 10, 1980
    S&P 500
    +13.0%
    Worst fall
    −17.1%
    Bitcoin
    —

    Volcker rate shock and the brief 1980 recession; stocks recovered by year end.

  • 5733Sep 9, 1972 – Sep 26, 1973
    S&P 500
    −1.2%
    Worst fall
    −16.4%
    Bitcoin
    —

    Start of the 1973 bear market; the deeper fall came the year after.

Price change from the last close before the year began to the last close on or before Elul 29. Worst fall is the deepest drop from a high inside the window. S&P 500 price index without dividends; Bitcoin from 2014.

S&P in Shemitah years
−2.7%

Average over 8 years; 5 of 8 were down.

S&P in other years
+11.9%

Average over 48 years; 8 of 48 were down.

Bitcoin in Shemitah years
−54.9%

Only 2 years of data, both in bear markets.

Bitcoin in other years
+143.4%

Average over 10 years; 1 of 10 were down.

Read this before you lean on it

  • Eight S&P samples and two Bitcoin samples are far too few to prove a cycle.
  • The worst Hebrew year for stocks since 1970 (5734, autumn 1973 to autumn 1974) was not a Shemitah year.
  • 5747 was one of the best years in the table, and the 1987 crash came about four weeks after it ended.
  • Both Bitcoin Shemitah years landed in its four-year-cycle bear markets, which explain those falls on their own.

A popular Shemitah exit timeline

One widely shared Shemitah framework turns the 5789 dates into an exit timeline. We summarise it here because readers ask about it, not because we endorse it.

Stocks (S&P 500)

  • Accumulate: buy dips through late 2026 and across 2027.
  • Exit: take profits progressively through 2027 and be fully out before September 2028, when the Shemitah year begins.
  • Holding into Q4 2028 would mean sitting through the crash window the framework projects.

Crypto

  • The framework assumes crypto tops first, ahead of stocks by roughly three to six months or more.
  • Exit: scale out from late 2027 through the first half of 2028, rather than holding into late 2028.

Reality check before you use it

Fitted after the fact
The Shemitah market theory, popularised by author Jonathan Cahn, was built by looking back at crashes that happened to line up. Big bear markets have also happened outside Shemitah years (1973–74 was the worst on record since 1970), and some Shemitah years were strong rallies (1986–87 gained more than a third).
Front-running
When a public theory names a date for the top, markets rarely top on schedule. Either buyers leave months early as people front-run the date, or momentum carries well past it and early sellers miss the upside.
Macro beats the calendar
Long market cycles are driven by central-bank liquidity, interest rates, earnings and fiscal policy, not by calendar dates.

Treating 2027–2028 as a loose window to rebalance and reduce risk is reasonable discipline. Treating September 2028 as a hard deadline carries real timing risk in both directions.

Questions

What is the Shemitah year?
The seventh year of a seven-year agricultural cycle described in the Torah. It runs from Rosh Hashanah (Tishri 1) to the last day of the month of Elul, so it starts in September or early October and ends about a year later. Like every Hebrew-calendar day, it begins at sundown the evening before.
Why do people connect it to market crashes?
The idea was popularised in the 2010s by authors who pointed to big falls ending on or near Elul 29 — September 17, 2001 and September 29, 2008 are the usual examples. Theorists usually watch from the autumn the year begins through the following year, sometimes into the one after that.
Does the record support it?
Partly. Since 1970 the S&P 500 fell in more of its Shemitah years than in other years, and on average did worse. But there are only eight Shemitah years in that record, one of them was a strong year, and the single worst Hebrew year for stocks (1973–74) was not a Shemitah year. Eight samples cannot separate a cycle from coincidence.
How are the dates on this page calculated?
From the Hebrew calendar built into modern browsers and servers, not copied from a list. Each window runs from Tishri 1 to Elul 29 of a year whose number divides evenly by seven, and the page checks itself against the well-known historical end dates.
Should I trade on it?
We would not on its own. Treat these as dates to keep an eye on: a reason to check your risk, not a signal. Trend, liquidity and valuation have explained past bear markets far better than a calendar has.

A calendar tells you when to pay attention. The cycle index tells you where the market actually is.

See the Crypto Cycle Index →

Educational market context, not financial advice. See our disclaimer.