Bitcoin has moved in long, repeating waves: fear and forced selling, a quiet base, a sustained advance, a speculative peak, and a slow handover at the top. The Crypto Cycle Index reads where the market sits in that wave today, using the same fixed rules for every week since 2012. The rules only ever look at data available at the time, so the history on this chart is exactly what the index would have said back then — nothing is repainted with hindsight.
Readings as of the weekly close on Oct 21, 2026
Price divided by its 200-day average. Under 1 means price is below the average; far above 1 means an extended market.
How far price sits below the highest close of the current run.
The 20-week average is −6.8% versus the 50-week.
Distance from the 200-week average, which has sat near the lows of past cycles.
Readings as of the weekly close on Oct 21, 2026
Next phase in the cycle: Bull Run
The weekly trend has turned down and price keeps falling away from its last cycle high. Rallies tend to fade and each bounce finds sellers. It marks the turn from a fading market into a falling one.
Has lasted 1–5 weeks (median 4) across 4 completed occurrences. Most recently began Jan 2026.
Price has fallen deep below its long-term average and selling starts to exhaust itself. Lows may still be tested, but the market is now cheap relative to its own history. Bottoms are only obvious in hindsight — this phase marks the zone, not the exact day.
Has lasted 13–38 weeks (median 23) across 5 completed occurrences. Most recently began Feb 2026.
The cycle low has held for a sustained stretch and price moves sideways. Volatility cools and attention drifts elsewhere. Patient buyers historically used this quiet stretch to build positions, but it can last many months.
Has lasted 2–30 weeks (median 9) across 4 completed occurrences. Most recently began May 2026.
The weekly trend has turned up and price holds above its long-term average. Higher highs and higher lows take over. Sharp pullbacks happen inside bull runs and, on their own, do not end the phase.
Has lasted 3–83 weeks (median 12) across 13 completed occurrences. Most recently began Apr 2024.
Price is pressing into all-time highs with overheated momentum. In our index Euphoria can come and go several times during one bull run — it cools back to Bull Run when momentum eases. It is the phase where risk has historically been highest.
Has lasted 1–22 weeks (median 7) across 8 completed occurrences. Most recently began Mar 2024.
After a euphoric peak, price fails to make new highs and fades for a sustained period. Long-term holders tend to hand their coins to late buyers here. A fresh high sends the index back to Bull Run; a turning trend sends it into a Bear Market.
Has lasted 11–27 weeks (median 16) across 6 completed occurrences. Most recently began Nov 2025.
Cycle context tells you where we are. GIGO tells you when to act.
See the GIGO indicator →Watching the longer calendar?
The next Shemitah years, and what stocks and Bitcoin actually did in past ones.
See the Shemitah cycle dates →Educational market context, not financial advice. See our disclaimer.